Annual Profit and Loss Forecast (5 Years)
Finance
5-year P&L projection: $66.7M cumulative revenue, 84.6% EBITDA margin, cash payback Year 4, single-site model
Revenue · EBITDA · Net Profit
EBITDA Margin by Year
P&L Summary — Years 1–5
| Line Item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 | 5-Yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ||||||
| Gross Revenue | 12,851 | 14,686 | 13,829 | 13,026 | 12,273 | 66,665 |
| Deductions (2%) | (257) | (294) | (277) | (261) | (245) | (1,334) |
| Net Revenue | 12,594 | 14,392 | 13,552 | 12,765 | 12,028 | 65,331 |
| Cost of Revenue | ||||||
| COGS (Facility OPEX) | (1,000) | (1,030) | (1,061) | (1,093) | (1,126) | (5,310) |
| Gross Profit | 11,594 | 13,362 | 12,491 | 11,672 | 10,902 | 60,021 |
| Gross Margin | 92.1% | 92.8% | 92.1% | 91.4% | 90.7% | 91.9% |
| Operating Expenses | ||||||
| Personnel | (500) | (570) | (650) | (700) | (750) | (3,170) |
| Marketing | (145) | (150) | (155) | (160) | (165) | (775) |
| G&A | (150) | (155) | (160) | (165) | (170) | (800) |
| Total SG&A | (795) | (875) | (965) | (1,025) | (1,085) | (4,745) |
| Profitability | ||||||
| EBITDA | 10,799 | 12,487 | 11,526 | 10,647 | 9,817 | 55,276 |
| EBITDA Margin | 85.8% | 86.8% | 85.1% | 83.4% | 81.6% | 84.6% |
| Depreciation | (6,429) | (6,429) | (6,429) | (6,429) | (6,429) | (32,143) |
| Net Profit | 4,370 | 6,058 | 5,097 | 4,218 | 3,388 | 23,131 |
| Net Margin | 34.7% | 42.1% | 37.6% | 33.0% | 28.2% | 35.4% |
Cumulative Cash Payback
Year 2 is peak revenue ($14.7M) and peak margin (86.8%). Ramp absorption complete, only 1 year of price erosion applied. From Year 3, compound erosion at −5% to −10% p.a. drives ~6% annual revenue decline on a fixed-capacity single site.
D&A at $6.4M/yr absorbs 49–53% of gross profit, compressing net margin to 28–42%. After Year 7 (2035), depreciation ends entirely — EBIT jumps to EBITDA level if the facility continues operating, dramatically improving returns.
Without expansion, revenue declines $600–750K/yr from Year 3. The single-site model validates unit economics (cash payback Y4, 92% gross margin) but confirms the strategic imperative for modular replication to sustain and grow topline.
EBITDA margins of 81–87% across all 5 years vs. industry norm of 20–40%. This 4× margin differential is entirely structural — BTM hydro at $0 electricity cost. Advantage persists as long as JV co-ownership is maintained.
Price erosion: −10% PPU / −8% Reserved / −5% Private p.a. · Tax: 0% Virtual Zone · Figures in USD
