Assumptions
Finance
March 28, 2026
Foundational assumptions underlying all financial projections and calculations in the business plan.
finance
Year 1 = 2029
All figures USD
92.1%
Blended Gross Margin
Year 1 Base Case
$45M
Total CAPEX
One-time · All-equity
$0
Debt / Interest
Zero leverage · Cycle 1
01 — Sales Price Growth
Price Erosion Model (Year 2–5)
| Track | Base Price | Yr 1 | Yr 2 | Yr 3 | Yr 4 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T1 — Pay-per-Use | $6/GPU-hr | 0% | −10% | −10% | −10% | −10% |
| T2 — Reserved | $4/GPU-hr | 0% | −8% | −8% | −8% | −8% |
| T3 — Private AI Factory | $1M/mo | 0% | −5% | −5% | −5% | −5% |
| API Layer | 10% of T1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Cumulative price impact by Year 5
Year 1 prices held flat — launch year. No price increases modeled. Green premium (~15–20%) embedded in base prices. Volume growth offsets erosion from Year 3+.
02 — Personnel & Payroll
Headcount Trajectory
2027–2028
5 staff
$258–306K · CEO, CTO, Energy, Sales, Innovations
Year 1 (2029)
7 staff
$534–756K · + CFO, Production Manager
Year 2 (2030)
8 staff
$618–870K · + HR Director
Year 3 (2031)
10–12 staff
$750K–1.1M · + ops/tech hires
Year 5 (2033)
15–20 staff
$1.1–1.6M · + regional sales, engineering
Compensation Structure
| Role | Pre-Rev | Post-SA |
|---|---|---|
| CEO | $60K | $120–150K |
| CTO | $60–72K | $120–156K |
| Head of Energy | $48–60K | $84–108K |
| Head of Sales | $48–60K | $84–120K |
| Head of Innovations | $42–54K | $72–96K |
Georgian cost base: 40–50% of US equivalents. Organic growth 5–8%/yr. Equity: 4yr vesting, 1yr cliff. NOC $120K/yr = OPEX (outsourced).
03 — Gross Margin
Margin by Product Line (Year 1)
API Layer
98.0%
T3 Private
94.9%
T2 Reserved
82.9%
T1 PPU
78.8%
Blended
92.1%
Margin trajectory (blended)
92%
Yr1
90%
Yr2
89%
Yr3
87%
Yr4
86%
Yr5
COGS structure ($1.0M/yr)
04 — Major Expenses
CAPEX Allocation ($45M)
NVIDIA = ~70% of CAPEX ($31.3M compute + networking). Single-source dependency.
Annual OPEX ($1.0M, +3%/yr)
| Item | Yr 1 | Yr 3 | Yr 5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA Maint. | $400K | $424K | $450K |
| Insurance+Conn | $185K | $196K | $208K |
| Software | $150K | $159K | $169K |
| Remote NOC | $120K | $127K | $135K |
| Electricity | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Total | $855K | $907K | $962K |
Tech Refresh Reserve (Year 5)
$1.9M
Storage 500TB: $700K · Network: $1.2M
05 — Financing Structure
Capital Structure — Cycle 1
● All-Equity
● Zero Debt
● No Interest Expense
| Source | Amount | Type | Terms |
|---|---|---|---|
| Institutional (Series A) | $40–43M | Preferred equity | Q3 2027 close |
| Founder | Sweat + seed | Common equity | 100% pre-dilution |
| HPP Owner (JV) | In-kind | BTM power + site | Revenue share TBD |
| Bank Loans | $0 | — | Not planned |
Tax Rate
15%
VZ may → 0%
Depreciation
$6.4M
/yr · 7yr straight-line
Future (Cycle 2)
$60–90M
2030–31 [Assumption]
06 — Material Assumptions & Events
Critical Event Dependencies
35%
BIS Export Controls
US restricts NVIDIA GPU exports to Georgia. Not modeled in Base Case. If triggered: 6–12 month delay, Singapore routing alternative activated.
40%
NVIDIA Delivery Delay
Small-volume order (4 racks) deprioritized vs hyperscaler bulk. Mitigated: Q1 2027 early order + 6-month buffer in timeline.
REQ
Anchor Client LOI
Must sign by Q2 2027. T3 = 77.8% of Year 1 revenue. Without anchor, revenue model fundamentally changes. Defined success condition.
REQ
JV Finalization
HPP operator agreement by Q4 2026. Foundational for $0 electricity assumption. Delay cascades to construction start.
AI CAGR 28–34% through 2030
No recession in Base Case
OPEX inflation 3%/yr
USD/GEL ±10%
Breakeven ~8% utilization
1for.ai · assumptions v1.0 · 2026-03-28 · All figures [Assumption] unless sourced from Project Brief · 6/6 sections
